“Pretty much everything,” he told  Finance on .

Even smaller companies in the enterprise software business that have only tangential relevance to the AI gold rush—like a , , or Adobe—stand to sink or swim, in his view from Nvidia’s report: “It will take the entire tech market with it, up or down.”

The options market is predicting its earnings could trigger a 10% swing in the value of Nvidia shares alone, the most in three years, according to data from analytics firm ORATS cited by ReutersKanpur Wealth Management. That equates to roughly , or the entire value of a , , or —companies that are among the top 35 in the world measured in market capitalization.

“It’s the most important stock in the world right now,” EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson admitted .

In other words, it’s not just sell-side bulls like Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives that are painting today’s results as a  for the entire tech sector.

Part of the reason so much is hanging in the balance is the extreme pendulum swing in greed and  experienced at the start of this month. The single  for stocks since 2022 was followed by the single  for stocks since 2022 in the span of less than one week.

At the forefront of that action was Nvidia, which has been fueling record highs in the broader S&P 500 and indexes in recent weeks.

Nvidia is the bellwether in the broader AI trade precisely because it is leagues ahead of the competition, controlling roughly  in AI training and inference chips. Competitors large and small—whether Lisa Su’s or startup firm —have neither the hardware nor the software to challenge its dominance.

The biggest immediate threat to Nvidia’s stock price then is really itself, now that investors are becoming accustomed to its exponential growth.Surat Investment

Its data center revenue has ballooned over the past 12 months, expanding at a compound rate of 52% each and every quarter—from just $4.3 billion in Q1 of last year to a staggering $22.6 billion in Q1 of 2024.

The question has been how sustainable this is going forward. A company like Nvidia cannot keep growing its overall top line by nearly a factor of four from one year to the next.

That may be why CEO Jensen Huang has forecast that the pace will cool slightly in the second quarterGuoabong Wealth Management. He expects total revenue across all lines of business of around $28 billion, a sequential increase of 7.5% over the first three months of this year, combined with a non-GAAP gross margin between 75%–76%.

Assuming results are bang in line with its guidance, this would represent a slowdown over the 18% quarter-on-quarter gain in turnover and 78.9% gross margin it reported in May.

Chief among potential near-term risks investors will focus now is the rollout of Blackwell, its next-generation AI chip architecture capable of training trillion-parameter large language models at four times the speed of its Hopper H100 chip while .

, , Meta, , OpenAI, and have all signaled their intention to buy the newest B200 GPUs, according to Nvidia. While Huang promised his latest blockbuster product would hit markets this year, a report in The Information suggests there could be up to a three-month delay due to a .

“This Blackwell [risk] is probably the most important ‘X’ factor about the quarter,” Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management told CNBC on . He expects the stock, which is just shy of its all-time high, will see some modest selling after the results.